- Heavy rains are forecast for already saturated areas around the Mozambique Channel.
- Widespread moderate rain was observed across southern Africa during the past week.
1) Since mid-December, consistent and significantly heavy rainfall has been received over southeastern Africa. In parts of southern Malawi, as well as, central and northern Mozambique, these rains have resulted in widespread flooding, extensive damage to crops, livestock and infrastructure, thousands of displaced people, and fatalities. The excess moisture also has elevated the risk for downstream river inundation along the Shire, Licungo, Zambezi, Mazoe, Pungue, and Save Rivers in the region.
2) While much of South Africa has received adequate rains since the beginning of the Southern African monsoon, the eastern parts of the country have accumulated below-average rains, affecting agricultural conditions in the region.
3) In late-December, a sharp reduction in seasonal precipitation has resulted in mid-seasonal dryness across several parts of southern Angola, and northern Namibia into the Caprivi Strip region. The continuation of suppressed rainfall is expected to negatively impact developing crops.
4) Several consecutive weeks of poorly distributed, suppressed rainfall has resulted in developing midseason dryness across parts of eastern Botswana, northern South Africa, central and southern Mozambique, with the largest moisture deficits in southern Zimbabwe. Continued dryness is forecast for some areas in early February, and may result in deteriorating ground conditions and wilting crops in the region.
5) An anomalous cyclonic circulation in the Mozambique Channel is likely to increase rainfall totals across much of Madagascar for the next week. With numerous reports of flooding across Madagascar causing damages to crops and infrastructure and increasing the risk for water-borne disease outbreaks, heavy rains during the next week will further increase flooding concerns.